Contributo in volume, 2016, ENG

Potential climate changes in Italy and consequences for land stability

Picarelli L., Comegna L., Gariano S.L., Guzzetti F., Mercogliano P., Rianna G., Santini M., Tommasi P.

Picarelli L., Seconda Università di Napoli Comegna L., Seconda Università di Napoli Gariano S.L., CNR-IRPI Guzzetti F., CNR-IRPI Mercogliano P., Rianna G., Santini M., CIRIA-CMCC Tommasi P. CNR-IGAG

Changes in the main weather features are becoming perceivable in Italy. In the last years, the average temperature and the intensity of rainstorms are increasing. Such phenomena could lead to changes in the earth-atmosphere interaction. Accounting for the high vulnerability of the Italian territory, an obvious consequence would concern the effects on the hydro-geological hazards, including landslides and floods. As a matter of fact, the higher frequency of high magnitude flood and landslide events represent an alarm bell. It is necessary to explore with all available instruments the consequences of the potential climate changes. Since quantitative predictions are not possible, the only way to run is depicting rational scenarios for the most vulnerable contexts adopting a multidisciplinary approach. Based on projections of potential climate changes in the 21st century, the report examines their potential impact in the context of the Italian peninsula. After a general overview about typical slope responses to weather changes, some quantitative scenarios have been depicted for representative geomorphological contexts. The last part of the paper examines changes in the expected risk, based on the characteristics of the Italian territory and its vulnerability, looking at the initiatives to undertake for its mitigation.

Keywords

climate change, slope stability

CNR authors

Gariano Stefano Luigi, Tommasi Paolo, Guzzetti Fausto

CNR institutes

IGAG – Istituto di geologia ambientale e geoingegneria

ID: 364840

Year: 2016

Type: Contributo in volume

Creation: 2017-01-17 18:42:17.000

Last update: 2019-09-02 16:25:59.000

External links

OAI-PMH: Dublin Core

OAI-PMH: Mods

OAI-PMH: RDF

External IDs

CNR OAI-PMH: oai:it.cnr:prodotti:364840