Articolo in rivista, 2022, ENG, 10.1016/j.actaastro.2022.05.045

Using the space debris flux to assess the criticality of the environment in low Earth orbit

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

CNR-ISTI, Pisa, Italy; CNR-ISTI, Pisa, Italy

In this paper we introduce a new index for evaluating the likelihood of accidental collisions leading to the complete destruction of intact objects in a volume of space in low Earth orbit (LEO). The proposed index is therefore not intended to assess the criticality of individual objects or missions, but rather to estimate the global impact of space activities on a given region of space. Moreover, the new index has been designed to be objective, as simple as possible, built from easily accessible data, as well as smoothly reproducible by third parties. Named "volumetric collision rate index", it has been developed starting from analytical equations expressing the collision rate as a function of the fluxes of intact objects and cataloged debris pieces. The application of reasonable simplifying assumptions and approximations has finally made it possible to define a dimensionless index that explicitly depends only on the spatial densities of intact objects and cataloged debris pieces. It has therefore been applied to the LEO environment, analyzing its evolution from mid-2008 to mid-2020, a crucial period characterized by an impressive change of space activity patterns, with the launch of lots of small satellites and mega-constellations. We also discuss how the index can be further improved, taking into account the maneuverable satellites, which do not contribute to the collision rate, and the increasing number of cubesats, which in many respects are more similar to debris, finally presenting a preliminary analysis in this direction.

Acta astronautica 198 , pp. 756–760

Keywords

Space debris, Cataloged objects, Environmental criticality indexes, Catastrophic collision rate

CNR authors

Pardini Carmen, Anselmo Luciano

CNR institutes

ISTI – Istituto di scienza e tecnologie dell'informazione "Alessandro Faedo"

ID: 470382

Year: 2022

Type: Articolo in rivista

Creation: 2022-09-02 10:49:34.000

Last update: 2022-09-02 15:53:32.000

External IDs

CNR OAI-PMH: oai:it.cnr:prodotti:470382

DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2022.05.045

Scopus: 2-s2.0-85131407509

ISI Web of Science (WOS): 000829100500005