RESULTS FROM 1 TO 13 OF 13

2018, Contributo in volume, ENG

Re-entry predictions of potentially dangerous uncontrolled satellites: challenges and civil protection applications

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

Currently, nearly 70% of the re-entries of intact orbital objects are uncontrolled, corresponding to about 50% of the returning mass, i.e. approximately 100 metric tons per year. In 2015, 79% of the mass was concentrated in 40 upper stages and the remaining 21% mostly in about ten large spacecraft. The average mass of the sizable objects was around 2 metric tons. Predicting the re-entry time and location of an uncontrolled object remains a very tricky task, being affected by various sources of inevitable uncertainty. In spite of decades of efforts, mean relative errors of 20-30% often occur. This means that even predictions issued 3 h before re-entry may be affected by an along-track uncertainty of 40,000 km (corresponding to one full orbital path), possibly halved during the last hour if further tracking data is available. This kind of information is not much useful and manageable for civil protection applications, often resulting in confusion and misunderstandings regarding its precise meaning and relevance. Therefore, specific approaches and procedures were developed to provide understandable and unambiguous information useful for civil protection planning and applications, as shown in practice for recent re-entry prediction campaigns of significant satellites (UARS, ROSAT, Phobos-Grunt, GOCE, and Progress-M 27 M).

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_16

2017, Presentazione, ENG

Uncontrolled re-entries of manmade space objects: how to get reliable products to manage and mitigate the potential risk in the airspace and on the ground

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

The aim of this presentation was to review the topic of uncontrolled satellite re-entry addressing the statistics, the risk, the prediction uncertainties, the prediction process, the prediction products for civil protection applications and recent significant events.

Summer School on Natural Space Risks, Paris Observatory - France, 28/08/2017 - 01/09/2017

2017, Rapporto di progetto (Project report), ENG

PILOT SERVICE FOR UNCONTROLLED REENTRY PREDICTIONS: SOME BASIC CONCEPTS AND REQUIREMENTS

Anselmo L.; Pardini C.

Some basic concepts and requirements for the set up of a civilian pilot service for the reentry predictions of sizable uncontrolled space objects are presented. This is a confidential document in support of national pre-operational SST activities.

2016, Rapporto di progetto (Project report), ENG

DETRITI SPAZIALI - Pilot service for uncontrolled reentry predictions: some basic concepts and requirements

Anselmo L.; Pardini C.

Some basic concepts and requirements for the set up of a civilian pilot service for the reentry predictions of sizable uncontrolled space objects are presented. This is a confidential document in support of national pre-operational SST activities.

2016, Contributo in atti di convegno, ENG

Reentry predictions of potentially dangerous uncontrolled satellites: challenges and civil protection applications

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

Currently, nearly 70% of the reentries of intact orbital objects are uncontrolled, corresponding to about 50% of the returning mass, i.e. approximately 100 metric tons per year. In 2015, 79% of the mass was concentrated in 40 upper stages and the remaining 21% mostly in about ten large spacecraft. The average mass of the sizable objects was around 2 metric tons. Predicting the reentry time and location of an uncontrolled object remains a very tricky task, being affected by various sources of inevitable uncertainty. In spite of decades of efforts, mean relative errors of 20-30% often occur. This means that even predictions issued 3 hours before reentry may be affected by an along-track uncertainty of 40,000 km (corresponding to one full orbital path), possibly halved during the last hour if further tracking data are available. This kind of information is not much useful and manageable for civil protection applications, often resulting in confusion and misunderstandings regarding its precise meaning and relevance. Therefore, specific approaches and procedures have been developed to provide understandable and unambiguous information useful for civil protection planning and applications, as shown in practice for recent reentry prediction campaigns of significant satellites (UARS, ROSAT, Phobos-Grunt, GOCE, Progress-M 27M).

Stardust Final Conference on Asteroids and Space Debris, Mini-symposium on Re-entry Analysis and Design for Demise, ESA-ESTEC, 31 October - 3 November 2016

2016, Contributo in atti di convegno, ENG

The uncontrolled reentry of Progress-M 27M

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

Uncontrolled reentries of sizable space objects are becoming of growing concern due to the increase of space activities around the Earth and population on the ground. After providing an updated review of various aspects of the problem, this paper presents the exemplar case of Progress-M 27M, whose control was lost immediately after launch, on April 28, 2015, and which reentered on May 8. As in similar previous occurrences, the Space Flight Dynamics Laboratory of ISTI/CNR, in Pisa, was in charge of reentry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities and space agency. The first prediction was issued in the morning of April 30, in the morning of May 7 the only potentially risky reentry trajectory over central Italy was identified, and in the afternoon of May 7, about 12 hours before the actual reentry, any residual risk for Europe and Italy was finally excluded.

8th IAASS International Space Safety Conference "Safety First, Safety for All", Melbourne, Florida, USA, 18-20 May 2016

2016, Presentazione, ENG

ISTI-CNR re-entry campaigns in 2015: progress-M 27M & IADC test object CZ-2D second stage (2014-051C)

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

Review of the ISTI-CNR activity carried out for the re-entry campaigns in 2015: Progress-M 27M & IADC test object CZ-2D second stage (2014-051C).

IADC-34 - 34th Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) Plenary Meeting, Harwell Campus, Oxford, UK, 29 March - 1 April 2016

2015, Rapporto tecnico, ENG

Progress-M 27M reentry predictions issued to the italian space agency for the civil protection department and frequently asked questions on uncontrolled satellite decays

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

Collection of the Progress-M 27M reentry predictions issued by ISTI/CNR to the Italian Space Agency for the National Civil Protection Department and frequently asked questions on uncontrolled satellite decays.

2015, Altro prodotto, ENG

Real time assessment of spatial and temporal risk windows

Pardini, C.; Anselmo L.

Presentation of the ISTI-CNR approach to the real time assessment of spatial and temporal risk windows for uncontrolled satellite reentries.

2015, Contributo in volume, ITA

Satellite re-entry prediction products for civil protection applications

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

In order to meet the specific requirements of civil protection authorities, since 2003 a set of tailored products has been developed and applied in Italy to define, a few days ahead of re-entry and in wide areas of interest, risk zones and corresponding alert time windows in the event of an uncontrolled satellite decay leading to undue debris impact hazard on the ground and in the overlying airspace. Based on the general properties of re-entries from nearly circular decaying orbits, on the results of detailed fragmentation analyses, when available, on standard re-entry prediction outputs, on specific simulations of endo-atmospheric debris dynamics, and on the basics of orbital motion with respect to the Earth, accurate re-entry tracks over the region(s) of interest are determined, with sufficiently conservative ground safety swaths, accounting for the sources of cross-track debris dispersion, and associated risk time windows, depending on debris flight time dispersion and residual trajectory along-track uncertainties. With the approaching re-entry and the consequent shrinking of the global uncertainty window, some of the risk zones and time windows identified in advance can be progressively discarded, leaving at most, until the end, one re-entry opportunity, but more often none, over a region the size of Italy. These products are easy to understand and are timely, accurate, unambiguous and remarkably stable, all qualities that render them particularly suitable for civil protection applications.

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-15982-9_52

2015, Contributo in atti di convegno, ENG

GOCE reentry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

The uncommon nature of the GOCE reentry campaign, sharing an uncontrolled orbital decay with a finely controlled attitude along the atmospheric drag direction, made the reentry predictions for this satellite an interesting case study, especially because nobody was able to say a priori if and when the attitude control would have failed, leading to an unrestrained tumbling and a sudden variation of the orbital decay rate. As in previous cases, ISTI/CNR was in charge of reentry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities, monitoring also the satellite decay in the frame of an international reentry campaign promoted by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). Due to the peculiar nature of the GOCE reentry, the definition of reliable uncertainty windows was not easy, especially considering the critical use of this information for civil protection evaluations. However, after an initial period of test and analysis, reasonable and conservative criteria were elaborated and applied, with good and consistent results through the end of the reentry campaign. In the last three days of flight, reentries were simulated over Italy to obtain quite accurate ground tracks, debris swaths and air space crossing time windows associated with the critical passes over the national territory still included in the global uncertainty windows.

5th International GOCE User Workshop, UNESCO, Paris, France, 25-28 November 2014

2015, Presentazione, ENG

Satellite re-entry statistics and products developed at ISTI-CNR for civil protection applications

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

After having introduced satellite re-entry statistics, the presentation details the products developed over the years at ISTI-CNR for civil protection applications.

3rd Aviation - (Space) Debris and Meteorites Integrated Risk Evaluation Workshop, Paris, France, 21-22/04/2015

2013, Contributo in atti di convegno, ENG

Re-entry predictions for uncontrolled satellites: results and challenges

Pardini C.; Anselmo L.

Currently, approximately 70% of the re-entries of intact orbital objects are uncontrolled, corresponding to about 50% of the returning mass, i.e. about 100 metric tons per year. On average, there is one spacecraft or rocket body uncontrolled re-entry every week, with an average mass around 2000 kg. Even though a detailed demise analysis is available only occasionally, in many cases the alert casualty expectancy threshold of 1:10,000 is probably violated. Re-entry predictions are affected by various sources of inevitable uncertainty and, in spite of decades of efforts, mean relative errors of 20% often occur. This means that even predictions issued 3 hours before re-entry may be affected by an along-track uncertainty of 40,000 km (corresponding to one orbital path), possibly halved during the last hour. However, specific methods and procedures have been developed to provide understandable and unambiguous information useful for civil protection planning and applications.

IAASS-2013 - 6th IAASS International Space Safety Conference "Safety in Not an Option", Montreal, Canada, 21-23 May 2013
InstituteSelected 0/1
    ISTI, Istituto di scienza e tecnologie dell'informazione "Alessandro Faedo" (13)
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    Anselmo Luciano (13)
    Pardini Carmen (13)
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    Presentazione (3)
    Contributo in volume (2)
    Rapporto di progetto (Project report) (2)
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    ICT.P11.006.001, Modelli matematici e metodi numerici per la dinamica del volo e la meccanica dei solidi (10)
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Keyword

Civil protection applications

RESULTS FROM 1 TO 13 OF 13